WHEN TRENDS TURN
As you have probably already read, I love trends; but what happens when a trend turns. No matter what time period you trade your trend will eventually turn. It is essential to the well being of your successful long term trading life that you can recognize the beginning of a trend turn.
The first sign of a trend turn usually come in the form of a candlestick reversal formation. Then you will eventually get a trendline break. That is why it is essential that you learn to read candlesticks like a master musician learns to read sheet music.
Things you want to look for in a valid trend turn are:
1. Price that has really been in a trend for a while, and a valid candlestick reversal signal). (Except on a smaller time frame, those trends can change rapidly)
2. A treadline break is usually a good sign. On the trendline break, be sure to wait for the candle to close. If it closes outside of the line you may want to confirm the validity of the breakout with an indicator such as a MA. I am not a huge fan of indicators because they are lagging data, but in this case, it would be wise to use one, which ever one best suits you. In a valid trend break your MA will usually be broken too.
3. I think the most important piece in a valid reversal is if price surpassed the previous relevant high/low.
Many times a good buy signal comes when a candlestick closes above the trendline, in a downtrend, though not always. A good sell signal could come from the close of a candle below the trendline , in an uptrend. This is where either patience, indicators or a combination of both come in handy.
If the trendline break is not valid (meaning it broke trend only temporarily), then you can redraw your trendline, or add another one to include the new high/low.
Very important if you trade against a long term established trend, expect it to be a short term ride. Get in and get out. The shorter the time frame the faster you'd better get out after you see that you have lost your advantage No matter what time frame you made your counter trend trade, just know that it will eventually turn to continue to follow the major trend. A counter trend trade is like a river temporarily diverted, the trend will eventually resume it's course. There are always trends within trends or hiccups/retracement, price never move straight up or straight down. It is essential that you know your major trend direction.
A breakout from trend can also be a valid exit signal to close out your profits.
Trend reversals are important because most traders want to buy near the bottom when price begins to move up and sell near the top when price begins to decline, and that means waiting for a proper confirmation before jumping in and getting your butt handed to you.
A reversal signal can be good for 0pips- 1100pips depending on your chart time frame and your patience level. For example the 5 min chart will give you many trading opportunities, but they are less reliable; whereas the monthly chart is much more likely to provide more accurate signals, so far this year it has provided 4 really good bounces for the USD/YEN pair. Longer term traders were able to capitalize on those opportunities, but they are a whole league unto themselves.
Remember, though trends tend to continue, nothing goes on forever and if you are going to be a successful trader, you are going to have to remind yourself that neither price nor trend heads in the same direction perpetually. In order to trade successfully you have got to be flexible. If you, like me, have been bearish all of 2009, you have got to know when to become bullish when there's a bounce in the market. Know when to hold em' know when to fold em, know when to walk away and know when to grab your profits and run.
As it stands; I don't plan to do a blog on candlestick formations, but you are welcome to go to my youtube channel where I have downloaded videos that I think are very helpful to new or a fresher for the more experienced traders. Please copy and paste the link:
http://www.youtube.com/user/TRADERSFRIEND.For a more in-dept look at candles read any of Steve Nison's Japanese Candle Trading books available on-line or at your local library. If you are going to purchase it, ebay is usually an excellent source for on-line trading materials.
Remember a consistently profitable trader spends more time waiting for valid entry signal than actually trading and that is a whole discipline unto itself(BIG SMILE)
Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE Click HereThis blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.