Now we are about to embark on what is almost sacred territory for me, 'trendlines'. Ahhhh..... What a most glorious word. Trendlines are one of my favor trading tools. If there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in trading for me, I would have say that it is trendlines.
Why?????? Because using trend lines properly will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time. I personally use trendlines in all of my trading. Now for those of you who have used trendlines and it hasn't worked out for you. Please remember that the shorter the time frame you trade, the more your trend is likely to change. My advice is to find the prevailing trend and trade in harmony with it. Example, if the trend is bullish (going up) on the 30min charts and you trade the five minute chart. If the trend is bearish (going down) on the five minute chart, don't take that trade. It is much more likely that the trend will reverse on you than if you wait for a trade that is in harmony with the bullish trend.
Please allow me to elaborate. If you are trading that five minute chart and price has dropped 30pips, you need to wait for a good candlestick reversal confirmation and a trendline break, before going long. Candlesticks are very often the first sign of a trend reversal. The break of the trendline is just further confirmation. If you trade the five minute chart, you want to get in and get out fast!!! Remember on the five minute the direction of the trend is going to change frequently. The shorter your time frame the less reliable your trend, or your candlestick confirmation. On the smaller time frames, snatch your money and go!!!!!!!!!
Ok........What is a trend? A trend is the tendency for price to move (overall) in one direction for a period of time. I say overall, because you get price retracements and corrections. That is when price temporary takes a pause or temporarily reverses from the major trend.
It is essential that if you chose to use trendlines as part of your trading strategy that you determine the direction of price on a larger time frame, so that you know how to best trade your strategy and for how long.
For example if you are in the mist of a bullish price trend on the daily chart and it is bearish on the monthly chart, then you need to be aware that price will reverse in the direction of the major trend at some point, sometimes in as little as 2days. However if you are bullish on the both the daily and the monthly chart, you stand a much greater chance at a longer more successful bullish run.
The reason to determine your trend before you begin trading is because when you sit in front of the monitor all day with price pullbacks and spikes, it is hard to determine the primary trend.
When I first started to trade, I would sit up and watch price move for about 15-30 mins and some times longer, because I wanted to make sure that I was on the right side of the trade before I committed my hard earned money. I would wait just long enough until the end of a rally or dip and I'd find myself on the wrong side of the trade and couldn't figure out why. It was almost as if the broker was just waiting for me to put in my order before price went the other way against me. My early trading life was extremely frustrating and eventually I went broke. I was staying up most of the 24 hours trading and traded all three markets; studying my butt of in between. I stretched my brains with all of the complex theories, and learned all of the indicators, and was still getting killed in the market. After all of that, I had to find what worked for me. Price action.........that is it and I use trendlines and candlestick formations to help me maximize my trading strategies.
Your trendline is diagonal support or resistance, it is that barrier that price is least likely to break. The longer the time frame the more reliable your trendlines. Though trends eventually break.
Traders Whiteboard #1 Traders White Board #1
To determine if you are in a bearish or bullish trend you will need to draw trendlines...........
For a bearish trend ( a trend in which price is making a series of lower highs) you want to draw your trendline connecting two relevant/major highs, then your trendline should project itself from there.
This is a picture of a downtrend with a bullish break at the end.
Video Lesson: Trading a Downward Trending Market Click Here
For a bullish trend ( a trend in which price is making higher lows) you want to draw your trendline below price, connecting relevant lows, then your line will project itself from there.
This is an uptrend with a 20period moving average.
How to find the Trend and How to TRADE the Trend Video Lesson Click Here
Lastly I want to touch on a trend channel. A trend channel can be bullish or bearish; but in a trend channel you want to connect both the relevant highs and the relevant lows to form a price channel that forms diagonal support/resistance.
An example of a bearish channel. This is a longer term channel, but I included enough of it so that you can see how price bounced off of support and resistance clearly defining buy/sell zones.
I do want to warn you that price will not always fit perfectly in your trend projections, it can be quite naughty sometimes, but we will discuss that in a later blog "When trends turn"
Until we meet again my Friend.
For any questions you may contact me at TradersFriend@yahoo.com
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This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.